000 FXUS65 KPUB 130520 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1020 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018 Upper wave swinging through nrn NM this afternoon, with last gasp of lingering flurries fading away as of 21z across the plains. Skies will clear overnight under nly flow aloft, setting the stage for the coldest night of the season so far, as colder air spreads south across the region. Undercut blended guidance at many locations for min temps, especially freshly snow covered high valleys (San Luis and Wet Mountain valleys), where mins could drop to near or slightly below zero by early Tue morning. On Tue, nly mid/upper flow continues, though with 700 mb temps rising through the day, max temps will begin to recover somewhat across the area. Given lack of much wly downslope component to the flow and snow cover, max temp rise will be relatively restrained, though most lower elevations should get well above freezing by mid-afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 252 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018 Mainly a dry forecast through this period. The only possible exception will be during the weekend when a relatively weak trough moves across the region, bring potentially cooler weather to the area with a chance of some showers. Given the forecasted evolving jet structure with this system, it does not appear to be a significant weather system, as the jet energy is forecasted to lift off to the east-northeast of the region as the trough moves across. Wednesday-Friday... Dry and mostly sunny through the period with temperatures generally in the 50s plains and 40s valleys. Winds are fcst to be generally light, even over the higher terrain. Saturday... This day is forecasted to be the coolest day of the extended period as a front will cross the region late Friday, ushering in cooler air to the region for Saturday. this will be the best day to see some showers (slight chance), with most of the activity occurring over the c mtns, east facing slopes of the S Front Range mtns and the plains. Sunday-Monday Dry with temperatures warming into the 50s again plains/40s valleys. Looking a bit farther out...EC and GFS long range guidance shows a fairly stout and moist subtropical jet punching into S California mid week next week, and this has the potential to bring some hefty snows to the SW mtns during this time period. /Hodanish && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1013 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018 Dry, northerly flow across flight area next 24 hours. Aside from some patchy late night/early morning ground vicinity of water bodies, VFR expected. This includes the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...LW