000 FXUS65 KPUB 232129 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 329 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Mountain storms so far this afternoon a little less widespread than the past couple days, as precipitable water has drifted downward slightly. Nly steering flow also keeping storms fairly close to the higher terrain with storms drifting south or a little southwest so far. Expect storm coverage to increase slightly this evening as weak upper wave dives south over the ridge, with HRRR and various iterations of the NAM suggesting fairly widespread activity over the eastern mountains until 03z-05z. Given CAPE of 1k-2k J/KG pooling along eastern mountain slopes, localized strong storms and heavy rainfall look likely, with flash flood threat continuing in/near local burn scars. While nly flow aloft will tend to keep most activity west of the I-25 corridor into this evening, late arrival of upper forcing from short wave trough may provide just enough lift to spark a few storms east of the mountains after 00z, especially El Paso/Pueblo Counties. Most activity then fades overnight, though a few showers could persist near the Continental Divide into Wed morning as mid level moisture lingers. On Wednesday, little change in the pattern with upper level ridge along the CO/UT border and plentiful moisture remaining in place across the region. Expect another round of afternoon storms over the mountains, with convection slowly drifting south under very light nly steering flow. Most activity will stay along and west of I-25, though a few weakening cells may drift toward lower elevations late in the day. Main risk again will be heavy rain/burn scar flash flooding, with models hinting that areas back toward the Continental Divide may see the strongest storms. Lee surface trough on the plains may induce some weak downslope flow in the afternoon, which will boost max temps a few degf east of the mountains versus today. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Overall the operational solutions are in decent agreement through the extended period. Ensembles have relatively small spreads through much of the period, with some differences in the upper level high pressure that is forecast to build across the region. Overall, forecast confidence is on the higher side. Wednesday night through Friday...high pressure is forecast to be centered over the Four Corners region through Thursday before it retrogrades into southern California on Friday. This will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the region. Expect ongoing mountain thunderstorms Wednesday evening with northwest steering flow pushing the activity south and east. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary threats, but a few stronger cells could produce gusty outflow winds and small hail. This activity will dissipate after sunset and dry conditions will likely prevail across the region by Thursday morning. Across the Plains, an area of low pressure is forecast to move east with a cold front dropping south into the I-25 corridor by morning. For Thursday, expect another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the region. Initial development will once again be over the mountains. Weak northwesterly steering flow should help push storms east into the I-25 corridor and points east, before dissipating overnight. Low level flow will likely be more upslope with abundant moisture across the region. This will lead to locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding may be possible on area burn scars and urban areas. In addition, small hail, lightning and gusty outflow winds will be possible. By Friday, the upper level ridge is forecast to retrograde southwest into southern California. Drier conditions are expected across the region. That being said, isolated to scattered convection is anticipated. Locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible with stronger storms. Saturday and Sunday...an upper level disturbance is forecast to track across the northern Rockies over the weekend. Expect better chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, especially over the mountains. A cold front will arrive by Sunday morning with low level moist flow turning upslope across the region. Sunday may be the day for the greatest flash flood potential, especially over burn scars. This will need to be monitored. Monday into Tuesday...the upper level high is forecast to progress back across the Four Corners region early next week. This will bring a return to hot temperatures. Current model solutions are dry, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible, especially across the higher elevations. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Storms developing over the mountains this afternoon will gradually spread to lower elevations into this evening. Will carry a vcts mention at all sites from 22z-03z, with lowest chance of a tsra at KPUB, as steering currents will tend to keep storms closer to the high terrain. Strongest storms will again produce briefly gusty winds 40 kts and low visibility due to heavy rain. Convection ends 03z-06z, with clearing skies and VFR conditions overnight. Similar pattern on Wed, with mainly mountain storms in the afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...PETERSEN