FXUS65 KPUB 240519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019

Issued at 857 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019

Updated to end precipitation across much of the region. A couple
of light showers persist over Kiowa County but should dissipate
over the next hour or so. Light snow will likely linger across the
Central Mountains into the overnight hours with no additional
accumulations expected. As for frost, there may be patchy areas of
frost by morning, mainly over El Paso County, but due to moist
ground, increasing westerlies and cloud cover should keep frost
from occurring for the most part. Those over El Paso County with
sensitive plants should take precaution to protect those plants to
be on the safe side, as temperatures will likely fall into the
lower 30s.  Mozley


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019

An upper level low pressure center is located over northern Utah at
the beginning of the short term forecast period (Thursday at 6PM
MDT). To the southeast of the upper level low, a jet streak with
magnitudes around 130 kts will continue to bring gusty winds over
the San Luis Valley and snow to the Continental Divide. So far, the
strongest wind gust observed over the San Luis Valley was in Alamosa
and was 67 mph. Don`t expect those winds throughout the rest of the
evening, though. As the upper low continues its journey
northeasterly, the winds during the evening will decrease to around
10 kts by around 2200 LST. The low level clouds that have been
lingering around over the Plains all day will begin to dissipate
during the evening hours, leaving a relatively clear night across
the region. There will be lingering snow showers over the highest
elevations of the Sawatch and Mosquito Mountains, but most of the
snow showers will have dissipated by around midnight.

There will be near freezing overnight lows over the I-25 corridor,
but we have decided that the freezing temperatures will not exist
long enough to issue a Frost Advisory, but delicate plants may be
affected by the colder temperatures. The rest of the plains will
be in the low 40s, the San Luis Valley will be in the 20s, the
upper Arkansas River Valley will be in the 30s, and the mountains
will range from the teens to the low 20s.

Southwesterly flow will continue even though the low pressure
center will propagate to the northeast. The result will be
another gusty day over the San Luis Valley, as well as the eastern
Plains. Wind gusts with magnitudes around 20 to 30 mph will be
observed during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, dry and warming
conditions are expected across the entire region. There is a
small chance at isolated thunderstorms over the far eastern Plains
during the afternoon hours, but our forecast is for those
thunderstorms to stay out of our forecasting jurisdiction.

Expect high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s over the
Plains, the mid 60s over the San Luis Valley, the upper 50s to
mid 60s over the Upper Arkansas River Valley, and the 30s to 40s
over the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019

A general warming and drying trend remains on tap for the
majority of the CWA from Friday evening into Monday as
drier southwesterly upper flow develops over southern Colorado.

Primarily later afternoon into evening dryline thunderstorms(strong
to possibly severe at times...WFO Pueblo will monitor closely)
are still a concern this Memorial Day weekend, focused near the
Kansas and Colorado border, otherwise basically dry conditions are
expected over the remainder of the CWA from Friday evening into
Memorial Day Monday.

In addition, gusty winds in combination with near to above
seasonal late May temperatures are projected over the majority of
southern Colorado from Friday evening into Memorial Day Monday as
reflected by forecast maximum temperatures climbing well into the
80s over favored eastern locations during this time-frame.

For now, will refrain from issuing fire weather highlights as
local land management agencies continue to indicate that fuels are
not favorable for larger-scale fires. Also, enhanced higher
terrain snow melt will help to increase stream and river flows
this Memorial Day weekend.

Meteorological focus then shifts to the amount of meteorological
impact that closed upper low will provide southern Colorado from
Monday evening into mid-week. This upper low is initially
expected to be located over southeastern Utah Monday evening,
before shifting across Colorado Tuesday in advance of weakening as
it moves into the midwest Wednesday. For now, will depict
increased pops in combination with cooler temperatures from
Monday evening into mid-week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019

LIFR conditions with fog and low cigs will persist at KCOS through
08z before northwest winds scour out low clouds and fog east of
the terminal. KPUB will also see some broken MVFR cigs through 07z
though should see more rapid clearing as clouds break. After 08z
conditions should remain VFR with some increasing high cloudiness
towards morning. South to southwest winds will increase and become
gusty at all three terminals Friday afternoon with gusts to around
25 kts.  -KT





NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion