000 FXUS65 KPUB 240519 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1119 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 Updated to end precipitation across much of the region. A couple of light showers persist over Kiowa County but should dissipate over the next hour or so. Light snow will likely linger across the Central Mountains into the overnight hours with no additional accumulations expected. As for frost, there may be patchy areas of frost by morning, mainly over El Paso County, but due to moist ground, increasing westerlies and cloud cover should keep frost from occurring for the most part. Those over El Paso County with sensitive plants should take precaution to protect those plants to be on the safe side, as temperatures will likely fall into the lower 30s. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 An upper level low pressure center is located over northern Utah at the beginning of the short term forecast period (Thursday at 6PM MDT). To the southeast of the upper level low, a jet streak with magnitudes around 130 kts will continue to bring gusty winds over the San Luis Valley and snow to the Continental Divide. So far, the strongest wind gust observed over the San Luis Valley was in Alamosa and was 67 mph. Don`t expect those winds throughout the rest of the evening, though. As the upper low continues its journey northeasterly, the winds during the evening will decrease to around 10 kts by around 2200 LST. The low level clouds that have been lingering around over the Plains all day will begin to dissipate during the evening hours, leaving a relatively clear night across the region. There will be lingering snow showers over the highest elevations of the Sawatch and Mosquito Mountains, but most of the snow showers will have dissipated by around midnight. There will be near freezing overnight lows over the I-25 corridor, but we have decided that the freezing temperatures will not exist long enough to issue a Frost Advisory, but delicate plants may be affected by the colder temperatures. The rest of the plains will be in the low 40s, the San Luis Valley will be in the 20s, the upper Arkansas River Valley will be in the 30s, and the mountains will range from the teens to the low 20s. Southwesterly flow will continue even though the low pressure center will propagate to the northeast. The result will be another gusty day over the San Luis Valley, as well as the eastern Plains. Wind gusts with magnitudes around 20 to 30 mph will be observed during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, dry and warming conditions are expected across the entire region. There is a small chance at isolated thunderstorms over the far eastern Plains during the afternoon hours, but our forecast is for those thunderstorms to stay out of our forecasting jurisdiction. Expect high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s over the Plains, the mid 60s over the San Luis Valley, the upper 50s to mid 60s over the Upper Arkansas River Valley, and the 30s to 40s over the mountains. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 A general warming and drying trend remains on tap for the majority of the CWA from Friday evening into Monday as drier southwesterly upper flow develops over southern Colorado. Primarily later afternoon into evening dryline thunderstorms(strong to possibly severe at times...WFO Pueblo will monitor closely) are still a concern this Memorial Day weekend, focused near the Kansas and Colorado border, otherwise basically dry conditions are expected over the remainder of the CWA from Friday evening into Memorial Day Monday. In addition, gusty winds in combination with near to above seasonal late May temperatures are projected over the majority of southern Colorado from Friday evening into Memorial Day Monday as reflected by forecast maximum temperatures climbing well into the 80s over favored eastern locations during this time-frame. For now, will refrain from issuing fire weather highlights as local land management agencies continue to indicate that fuels are not favorable for larger-scale fires. Also, enhanced higher terrain snow melt will help to increase stream and river flows this Memorial Day weekend. Meteorological focus then shifts to the amount of meteorological impact that closed upper low will provide southern Colorado from Monday evening into mid-week. This upper low is initially expected to be located over southeastern Utah Monday evening, before shifting across Colorado Tuesday in advance of weakening as it moves into the midwest Wednesday. For now, will depict increased pops in combination with cooler temperatures from Monday evening into mid-week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1105 PM MDT Thu May 23 2019 LIFR conditions with fog and low cigs will persist at KCOS through 08z before northwest winds scour out low clouds and fog east of the terminal. KPUB will also see some broken MVFR cigs through 07z though should see more rapid clearing as clouds break. After 08z conditions should remain VFR with some increasing high cloudiness towards morning. South to southwest winds will increase and become gusty at all three terminals Friday afternoon with gusts to around 25 kts. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY AVIATION...KT