000 FXUS65 KPUB 170627 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1127 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1127 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019 Updated to end WWA across the Central Mts. UPDATE Issued at 502 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019 Updated to account for Fog in the valley and far eastern plains. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 241 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019 There will continue to be some snow along the Continental Divide this evening, with some additional light accumulations. There may also be some light snow showers on some of the eastern mountain peaks. By late tonight, snow along the Continental Divide is expected to decrease with just some spotty showers thru the night. The rest of the area should be dry. The San Luis Valley has continued to see low clouds and areas of fog today, and it is expected that this will continue tonight. Some flurries may also continue falling out of this low clouds cover at times, but shouldn`t amount to much. On Thursday, southern CO will be between weather systems. Forecast models show dry weather across the area, although the central mtns may have some light snow, especially toward evening. Temps acrs the southeast plains and in the Upper Arkansas River Valley should again be above average, while the San Luis Valley should see below average temps. Forecast models have been little help with forecasting the low clouds, fog and temps in the San Luis Valley. At this time satellite images are showing the low clouds eroding from the south and west in the valley, but chances are they will redevelop quickly in the evening. The NAM and GFS forecast soundings show low clouds overnight in the San Luis Valley and thru Thu morning, with the clouds then dissipating early Thu afternoon. Although as already mentioned, I have low confidence in the models with regards to this situation, as they have not done well the past two days. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 241 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019 Operational models and ensembles are in decent agreement through the extended period, even with quick moving upper level storm systems. This leads to higher forecast confidence through the extended period, with just differences in the finer details. Thursday night through Friday...a quick moving upper level storm system is forecast to move across Colorado through Friday. Southwest flow ahead of the system will lead to ongoing snow along the Continental Divide Thursday night. Ahead of upper system, downslope winds will be possible along the Eastern Mountain lee slopes through the overnight hours. While we are not anticipating high winds at this time, gusts to 30 to 40 mph may be possible, especially in wind prone areas of the Southern Sangre de Cristo range and Wet Mountains. Temperatures will also be tricky, with areas that see wind staying in the 40s overnight, while the rest of the Plains falls into the lower 30s. By Friday morning, a strong cold front will drop south across the Plains. Strong northerly winds will develop by late morning with gusts near 50 mph over the Plains. This will need to be monitored. As far as precipitation is concerned, snow over the mountains will spread east across the region through the afternoon. Temperatures in the 40s will keep rain and snow levels around 7 kft. Mountain areas, especially up high, will likely see advisory amounts, while lower elevations of the mountains see just a couple of inches. Locations under 7 kft will likely see mostly rain, with perhaps a change over to snow Friday evening, before snow comes to an end by midnight. Saturday into Sunday...residual moisture and northwest flow behind the departing upper system should keep most of the area dry on Saturday. Isolated light snow will be possible over the Central Mountains due to the favorable orographic flow. Minor accumulations may be possible. On Sunday, high pressure aloft will transition across Colorado with dry and warmer conditions expected across the region. Afternoon highs on Saturday will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, while Sunday sees highs in the mid to upper 50s across the lower elevations. Sunday night into Wednesday...models in good agreement with the next upper level storm system coming across the area. Another round of strong winds are possible Sunday night along the Eastern Mountain lee slopes with west winds gusting to near 50 mph possible, especially in wind prone areas. Temperatures Sunday night will also be mild along the lee slopes with 40s, while further east see lows in the 30s. Snow will once again ramp up over the Continental Divide Sunday night and persist into Monday night. Decent accumulations will remain possible. Over the Plains, another strong cold front will drop south on Monday afternoon with another round of gusty north winds, with some gusts to near 50 mph possible. The latest models runs have decent wrap around precipitation behind the front Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Given the timing, snow levels will likely be lower with most of the Plains seeing the potential for snowfall. By Tuesday, the upper system will be pulling away from the area with broad northwesterly flow into Wednesday. Expect snow to come to an end across the region early Tuesday, with just isolated snow showers over the Central Mountains into Wednesday. Mozley && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1036 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019 VFR conditions expected at COS and PUB over the next 24 hours. Could see breezy westerly winds over and near the higher terrain west of the terminals, especially aft 00Z as westerly flow aloft increases ahead of another embedded disturbance moving across the Great Basin. IFR and LIFR conditions in freezing fog to continue at ALS through at least 18Z, as cold air remains trapped in the Valley. Expecting fog to dissipate through the afternoon, with VFR conditions possible aft 20Z as clouds and southerly winds increase ahead of another embedded disturbance moving across the Great Basin. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MW SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...MW