FXUS65 KPUB 230111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
711 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Issued at 703 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Updated to expire the Red Flag Warning that was in effect for
portions of the area as of 7 PM this evening. Winds have started
to subside and humidity values recover due to nightfall.  Mozley


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

1. Critical Fire Weather Conditions this afternoon.


Predominantly clear skies over the region at 2 pm this afternoon.
Temperatures were quite warm with temps in the 80s across the
plains. These very warm temps juxtapositioned with rather cool temps
aloft are leading to dry adiabatic lapse rates reaching well into
the mid atmosphere. These lapse rates combined with a 100+ knt jet
are leading to some pretty gusty winds in places, as KCOS gusted to
41 knts around 230 pm this afternoon.

Rest of Today through tomorrow afternoon...

Dry weather is near certain across the region through the period.
Main concern will be the continued threat of some stronger winds
across the region as the strong westerlies will be impinging across
the mountains and this will lead to some strong gusty winds at
ridgetops through mid day tomorrow. Fire weather concerns will
continue into early evening with winds decreasing at lower
elevations by early to mid evening. At mtn top levels, wind will
likely keep or, or increase somewhat as the core of the jet pushes
overhead tonight.

A weak cool front will push across the area tonight, and this will
knock a few degrees off the max temps tomorrow as compared to today.
wind overall, especially at lower elevations, will be less than
today. With lesser winds tomorrow and RH values a bit higher, fire
weather concerns will be less, but there will still be be some
spotty areas of meteorological critical fire weather conditions,
especially in Chaffee, Fremont and western Pueblo counties, and
possibly the northern San Luis Valley area. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Saturday night-Sunday night...Latest models indicate a secondary
weak wave translating through the westerly flow aloft across the
southern tier of Colorado Saturday night, which could help to
produce a few showers across the southern mountains through the
night, otherwise dry conditions with seasonal temperatures can be
expected across south central and southeast Colorado through the day
Sunday. Could see lows getting to around freezing across the San
Luis valley, but a widespread hard freeze does not appear likely.

Monday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build
across the Rockies through the middle of next week, leading to
generally dry and warm weather and generally light winds across the
region. Latest NBM brings in some slight pops across the southern
mountains in the afternoons with some increase in available moisture
within the developing weak southwest flow aloft. Otherwise, dry
conditions will continue to prevail through the period. As for
temperatures, warming aloft under the ridge will help boost highs
some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal levels in the 80s to lower
90s across the plains, and mainly 60s and 70s across the higher

Thursday-Friday...Operational models start to diverge through the
end of next week, as they try to bring west coast energy through the
upper ridging in place across the Rockies, and an established omega
blocking pattern across the CONUS. With that said, latest NBM
grids seem to follow the latest ensemble mean data, which keeps
dry and unseasonably warm conditions, with a generally light wind
regime in place into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Some gusty south to southwest winds will be likely at all of the taf
sites through late this afternoon, with winds decreasing thereafter.
Diurnal flow is anticipated tonight.





NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion