135 FXUS65 KPUB 102348 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 548 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again Saturday across the region. - High fire danger returns for Sunday and Monday with gusty winds and very low humidity values. - Active weather pattern Tuesday through Friday with periods of showers and thunderstorms possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Currently...weak energy moving across Colorado in southwesterly flow is helping to generate scattered showers, mainly across the San Luis Valley and down near the New Mexico border. Widespread cloud cover has helped keep temperatures cool, with 50s for the San Luis Valley and most of the Plains. In areas that have cleared, temperatures have risen into the 60s. Rest of today and tonight...the weak energy in the southwest flow will continue to spark scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the San Luis Valley and far southern Plains through this evening. Model guidance has marginal instability, with SBCAPE values nearing 300 j/kg this afternoon across the Raton Mesa region. 0-6 km shear is around 30 to 35 kts and one or two storms that develop over the Raton Mesa could become strong to severe, with wind gusts 55 to 60 mph and hail near 1 inch in diameter. The confidence in these conditions is low at this time, but will continue to be monitored. Any showers and thunderstorms that develop will shift east into Kansas this evening with mostly dry conditions forecast once this activity departs. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 40s across the Plains, with 30s across the San Luis Valley. Saturday...a more robust embedded upper wave will move across Colorado on Saturday, with more widespread showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon into the evening hours. Moist southwest flow will increase throughout the afternoon, with dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 40s for the Plains. This will help lead to SBCAPE values in the 500 to 700 j/kg range by the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late morning across the higher terrain and quickly move east into the Plains by the afternoon. Wind gusts near 60 mph and hail near 1 inch in diameter may be possible with stronger cells on the Plains, especially east of I-25 where deeper moisture will exist. There has been concern with dry thunderstorm potential, but moisture in the lower levels (humidity values in the 25 to 40 percent range) will limit that threat east of I-25. Temperatures will warm nicely across the Plains, with 70s and lower 80s by the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Models in good agreement through Monday before differences show up Tuesday through the end of the forecast period. Sunday and Monday will be widespread high fire danger days, while active weather returns for later in the week. Saturday night through Monday...persistent southwest flow with much drier air will fill in across Colorado Saturday night and prevail through Monday. Temperatures will remain warm, with 70s and 80s across the Plains, and 60s over the San Luis Valley. Much drier air will also move across the region, with dangerous fire weather conditions expected across the area both Sunday and Monday. The main question for Sunday will be how much rain falls on Saturday and Saturday evening. Expect any thunderstorms that are ongoing Saturday evening to quickly shift east into Kansas with dry conditions into Sunday morning. If shower and thunderstorm coverage is more isolated to scattered in nature, with low QPF values, the high fire danger will be widespread on Sunday, with gusty southwest winds near 35 to 45 mph and humidity values in the 5 to 10 percent range. If Saturday`s thunderstorm coverage is more widespread with higher QPF values, the high fire danger may not be as widespread. For now, issued a Fire Weather Watch for all but the San Juan Mountains for Sunday, and any upgrade on future shifts will be dependent on any rainfall over the next couple of days. On Monday, flow aloft increases with stronger winds and continued dry air across southern Colorado. Winds will increase out of the southwest, with gusts in excess of 45 mph possible, and will combine with humidity values under 10 percent. Fire Weather Watch will likely be necessary. As the next upper disturbance begins to impact the area, a few rain and high elevation snow showers may be possible late Monday afternoon and evening along the Continental Divide. Tuesday through Friday...models diverge a bit from mid to late week, with an active pattern. The GFS is most aggressive with dropping the next upper wave across the area during this period, with widespread showers, high elevation snow and possible thunderstorms. The GFS would give us another critical fire weather day Tuesday, especially for areas south of Highway 50. The GFS would also be a bit cooler than the current forecast has. The ECMWF is a bit slower and further north with the upper level storm track. While still active, the ECMWF would likely keep most shower, high elevation snow and thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain and further north. It is also a be delayed compared to the GFS, with the most active period late in the work week, along the warmer temperatures. The NBM guidance is middle of the road, with daily periods of showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday to Friday time period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 At KCOS and KPUB..MVFR conditions in low ceilings and mist will be possible overnight, mainly at KCOS between 02Z and 17Z. Winds remain light and southeasterly overnight. Southwest winds develop on Saturday with gusts to 30kt. There will also be low end (30 percent) chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, generally between 19Z and 00Z at both stations. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be possible with storms tomorrow. At KALS..VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with vicinity showers possible through much of the evening hours. Scattered to broken middle and upper-level clouds are expected through the period. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, generally after 18Z. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be possible with any storms that move near station. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ220>222-224>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...EHR