000
FXUS65 KPUB 170627
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

Updated to end WWA across the Central Mts.

UPDATE Issued at 502 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

Updated to account for Fog in the valley and far eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

There will continue to be some snow along the Continental Divide
this evening, with some additional light accumulations.  There may
also be some light snow showers on some of the eastern mountain
peaks.  By late tonight, snow along the Continental Divide is
expected to decrease with just some spotty showers thru the night.
The rest of the area should be dry.  The San Luis Valley has
continued to see low clouds and areas of fog today, and it is
expected that this will continue tonight. Some flurries may also
continue falling out of this low clouds cover at times, but
shouldn`t amount to much.

On Thursday, southern CO will be between weather systems.  Forecast
models show dry weather across the area, although the central mtns
may have some light snow, especially toward evening.  Temps acrs the
southeast plains and in the Upper Arkansas River Valley should again
be above average, while the San Luis Valley should see below average
temps.  Forecast models have been little help with forecasting the
low clouds, fog and temps in the San Luis Valley.  At this time
satellite images are showing the low clouds eroding from the south
and west in the valley, but chances are they will redevelop quickly
in the evening.  The NAM and GFS forecast soundings show low clouds
overnight in the San Luis Valley and thru Thu morning, with the
clouds then dissipating early Thu afternoon.  Although as already
mentioned, I have low confidence in the models with regards to this
situation, as they have not done well the past two days.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

Operational models and ensembles are in decent agreement through
the extended period, even with quick moving upper level storm
systems. This leads to higher forecast confidence through the
extended period, with just differences in the finer details.

Thursday night through Friday...a quick moving upper level storm
system is forecast to move across Colorado through Friday.
Southwest flow ahead of the system will lead to ongoing snow along
the Continental Divide Thursday night. Ahead of upper system,
downslope winds will be possible along the Eastern Mountain lee
slopes through the overnight hours. While we are not anticipating
high winds at this time, gusts to 30 to 40 mph may be possible,
especially in wind prone areas of the Southern Sangre de Cristo
range and Wet Mountains. Temperatures will also be tricky, with
areas that see wind staying in the 40s overnight, while the rest
of the Plains falls into the lower 30s. By Friday morning, a
strong cold front will drop south across the Plains. Strong
northerly winds will develop by late morning with gusts near 50
mph over the Plains. This will need to be monitored. As far as
precipitation is concerned, snow over the mountains will spread
east across the region through the afternoon. Temperatures in the
40s will keep rain and snow levels around 7 kft. Mountain areas,
especially up high, will likely see advisory amounts, while lower
elevations of the mountains see just a couple of inches. Locations
under 7 kft will likely see mostly rain, with perhaps a change
over to snow Friday evening, before snow comes to an end by
midnight.

Saturday into Sunday...residual moisture and northwest flow behind
the departing upper system should keep most of the area dry on
Saturday. Isolated light snow will be possible over the Central
Mountains due to the favorable orographic flow. Minor
accumulations may be possible. On Sunday, high pressure aloft will
transition across Colorado with dry and warmer conditions expected
across the region. Afternoon highs on Saturday will reach the
upper 40s to lower 50s, while Sunday sees highs in the mid to
upper 50s across the lower elevations.

Sunday night into Wednesday...models in good agreement with the
next upper level storm system coming across the area. Another
round of strong winds are possible Sunday night along the Eastern
Mountain lee slopes with west winds gusting to near 50 mph
possible, especially in wind prone areas. Temperatures Sunday
night will also be mild along the lee slopes with 40s, while
further east see lows in the 30s. Snow will once again ramp up
over the Continental Divide Sunday night and persist into Monday
night. Decent accumulations will remain possible. Over the Plains,
another strong cold front will drop south on Monday afternoon
with another round of gusty north winds, with some gusts to near
50 mph possible. The latest models runs have decent wrap around
precipitation behind the front Monday evening into Tuesday
morning. Given the timing, snow levels will likely be lower with
most of the Plains seeing the potential for snowfall. By Tuesday,
the upper system will be pulling away from the area with broad
northwesterly flow into Wednesday. Expect snow to come to an end
across the region early Tuesday, with just isolated snow showers
over the Central Mountains into Wednesday.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1036 PM MST Wed Jan 16 2019

VFR conditions expected at COS and PUB over the next 24 hours.
Could see breezy westerly winds over and near the higher terrain
west of the terminals, especially aft 00Z as westerly flow aloft
increases ahead of another embedded disturbance moving across the
Great Basin.

IFR and LIFR conditions in freezing fog to continue at ALS
through at least 18Z, as cold air remains trapped in the Valley.
Expecting fog to dissipate through the afternoon, with VFR
conditions possible aft 20Z as clouds and southerly winds increase
ahead of another embedded disturbance moving across the Great
Basin.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion