FXUS65 KPUB 182102 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Drier air in the mid levels was spreading across the state this
afternoon under nwly flow aloft, while n-nwly surface winds have
begun to lower surface dewpoints as well. Starting to see some very
isolated convection develop over wrn CO and nwrn NM as of 2030z, so
will leave some very low pops in place for the higher peaks of the
Sangres and San Juans into early evening, though coverage/intensity
of any tsra will be sparse/weak. Still some modest instability along
the KS border late this afternoon, though better instability and low
level moisture convergence lie farther to the north and east of the
region over KS. Past few runs of the HRRR and other mesoscale models
haven`t indicated any convection in CO this evening, so will taper
back pops over the plains to just a sliver of isolated near the
border prior to 00z.  Clouds then clear overnight with seasonably
mild temps.

Center of upper level high pressure drifts eastward along the CO/NM
border on Thu, with hot temps across the region as mid level
temps/heights peak. Should see readings well above 100f along the
lower Ark Valley, with 80s/90s widespread elsewhere. Air mass
continues to slowly dry under n-nwly surface/mid-level flow, and
suspect at best only very isolated/weak/mainly dry convection over
the higher peaks in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

After a couple of days of hot and relatively dry weather, rain
chances will be on the increase once again starting this weekend
and especially into early next week. Monsoon moisture will once
again be on the increase as early as Friday along the contdvd and
across the entire region for the weekend into early next week.

For Friday, it will be hot once again with max temps on the plains
aoa 100F along the lower ark rvr valley and 90s over the remainder
of the plains. Upper 80s will occur in the valleys with 70 mtns.
Showers should be on the upswing across the contdvd as moisture

For the weekend, moisture increases all regions, although I really
do not see any noticeable forcing on the plains, and showers and
storms over the lower elevations may be isolated at best. Over the
mtns, scattered to likely pops are forecasted. Some of this rain may
be locally heavy, with the attended threats of flash flooding and

From late Sunday night into early next week, showers and storms
should become widespread all regions a a front will come down the
plains as early as Sunday night, and this will be the needed forcing
to get storms going over the plains. flash flooding will become more
a concern this period, especially urban areas and east slopes of the
mtns/burn scar regions.

A drier trend will likely start by mid week. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

VFR conditions will continue at all taf sites tonight and Thursday,
as drier spreads south across Colorado. Any convection this evening
and Thursday afternoon will be very isolated and high base, with
tsra remaining over the higher terrain.





NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion