FXUS65 KPUB 010530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1030 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021

Key Messages:

1) Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions are expected throughout
the short term forecast period.

Upper level northwesterly flow and a dry air mass will remain over
southern Colorado throughout the short term forecast. The result
will be the typical seasonal chilly mornings with values in the 20s
and 30s over the plains, the single digits to the 20s over the
mountain valleys, and the teens over Lake County.

The upper level heights continue to rise throughout the day tomorrow
which will result in warming temperatures to the upper 60s to low
70s over the plains and the 50s to 60s over the mountain valleys,
Lake County, and Teller County.

Dry conditions are expected throughout the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021

Overall, dry weather is expected through much of the extended
period, with record high temperatures forecast on Thursday. High
uncertainty exists beyond the weekend with the evolution of the
upper pattern, but there may be some precipitation relief for at
least the Continental Divide.

Wednesday night and Thursday...high pressure will settle across
southern Colorado with dry conditions prevailing. Overnight lows
will fall off into the 20s and 30s across the Plains, and lower
teens to single digits in the San Luis Valley. Record high
temperatures are forecast on Thursday afternoon. Alamosa (forecast
60/record 58), Colorado Springs (forecast 71/record 68) and Pueblo
(forecast 75/record 72) should all see records, along with most
areas across the Plains. No precipitation is forecast.

Friday and Saturday...a cold front will have arrived by Friday
morning, with afternoon highs only in the 50s and 60s across the
region. Continued dry weather is expected both days. Temperatures
will continue to cool, with highs on Saturday only in the 50s.

Sunday into Tuesday...an upper disturbance is forecast to drop out
of the Northern Rockies and track southeast into the Central
Plains. At this time, model guidance has really backed off on
precipitation chances, with maybe isolated snow showers Sunday
afternoon over the Central Mountains. In fact, the NBM guidance is
completely dry. Temperatures will warm into the 50s and 60s Sunday

The forecast uncertainty rises considerably as we move into early
next week. Most operational solutions drop an upper low over the
Western conus, but vary on the track. The GFS is most aggressive,
bringing snow to the Continental Divide on Monday, and spreading
it eastward into Tuesday. The ECMWF and Canadian are much further
west, with the upper low dropping down the west coast, keeping
most of southern Colorado drier. Ensembles tend to support the
drier, further west solutions. Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1024 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be quite light and
diurnally driven. Quite a bit of high clouds will be over the
region tonight but will diminish with time.





NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion