097 FXUS65 KPUB 242152 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 352 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 352 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...Scattered Showers and Below Average Temperatures... Upper low pressure spinning over northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming will bring scattered showers and below average temperatures to the area over the next 24 hours. Upslope across the plains will keep it on the cloudy side with bouts of showers and a few evening thunderstorms. The upslope flow across the plains is weakening at this time. This will continue into the evening before increasing again late tonight through Monday as an upper level disturbance swings this way and reinforces the upslope. Mostly cloudy skies, scattered precipitation, and below average temperatures will continue over the east in response. Over the mountains and high valleys there is no low level upslope flow to bring in the low clouds. Consequently, there has been a great deal more sunshine in those areas. There may be a few evening showers or thunderstorms around but after the sun sets, there should be quite a bit of clearing leading to freezing temperatures in many areas by Monday morning. Leadville, that was already down to 31 degrees this morning, will probably drop into the lower 20s. Alamosa and many of the agricultural areas of the San Luis Valley will probably see a widespread freeze tonight with temperatures generally ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the valley from 3 AM to 9 AM Monday. Tender plants should be protected or brought indoors. There could also be some snow showers in the mountains overnight, generally above 8,000 feet. But nothing too widespread or heavy is anticipated at this time. Mainly just a local dusting less than an inch here and there. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 352 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Monday night-Tuesday night...Models continue to indicate splitting energy across the region with the main upper trough lifting out across the Northern Rockies Monday night, as secondary energy digs down the backside of the system and develops a closed low across the southern Great Basin through the day Tuesday. With that said, should see scattered showers across the area diminishing though Monday evening with some clearing into Tuesday morning, especially over the higher terrain, as drier air within the westerly flow moves across the area. Tuesday looks relatively dry across the area, though can`t rule out some isolated afternoon showers, mainly over and near the higher terrain. With cool air in place, low temperatures across the higher terrain and high mountain valleys to cool to at and below freezing, but will not go with a freeze watch for the San Luis Valley, as will see how low tonight`s temps will go in the SLV. There could be some morning stratus across the eastern Plains Monday morning, and with the cool air and weak low level upslope in place, highs Tuesday will be below seasonal levels, with mainly 50s and 60s across the lower terrain and 30s to low 50s across the higher terrain. Wednesday-Saturday...Lower confidence forecast through the rest of the week and into the early weekend, as models are struggling on location and timing of secondary energy across the Great Basin lifting back out across the Rockies. Models do indicate the system digging it into the Desert SW into Wednesday night, with the GFS then further east with the system as if lifts out across south Central Colorado through the day Friday where as the ECMWF is further north and west with the system. The EC solution would keep most of the precipitation associated with the system over and near the higher terrain, with best coverage across the ContDVD, where as the GFS solution would bring better chances of precipitation to the eastern Plains. With that said, have stayed closer to blended model solution, which slowly increases precipitation chances across the higher terrain through Wednesday night and then spreads chances east through Thursday night before decreasing areawide into early next weekend. Temperatures to slowly warm through the period, though remaining below seasonal levels through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 352 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Upper low pressure area spinning over northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming at this time. Upper low will stay in approximately the same location through Monday. Areas of MVFR to LIFR CIGS and VSBYS will continue over the eastern slopes and plains over the next 24 hours with scattered showers and storms. Meanwhile, generally VFR over the western slopes and high valleys, with isolated showers and storms producing local MVFR to LIFR conditions. KCOS has gone briefly VFR for a few hours this afternoon. KPUB got close with breaks in the overcast noted nearby but it didn`t quite happen. Sub-VFR conditions will likely resume overnight as upslope flow increases in response to an approaching upper disturbance being pushed eastward from the main upper disturbance. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...LW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...LW