116 FXUS65 KPUB 191817 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1117 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 403 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2019 Flow aloft increases from the southwest over CO today as the kicker system drops through northern and central CA, filling and ejecting the upper low off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. Should see gradually increasing mid/high level wave cloudiness today as Pacific moisture starts to increase. Lee trough deepens in response to increasing southwest flow aloft but stays pinned up along the I-25 corridor. This will keep breezy westerly winds along and west of I- 25 for the most part, with southeasterly winds across the plains to the east. With the increase in wave cloudiness and lack of stronger winds across the plains, guidance temperatures are curiously cool across the plains, and may not be so far fetched given less mixing. HRRR seems to agree with keeping temperatures around 70 or a little cooler along the eastern Arkansas River valley and points northward. Temperatures should warm into the lower 70s along the southern I-25 corridor. Overall did go a little warmer than guidance across the southeast plains, as temperatures yesterday overachieved compared to guidance and model blends. But in general readings may end up pretty similar to yesterday. Temperatures out west should also be similar to those of yesterday. Moisture increases tonight along the Continental Divide with the approach of the upper wave, so should see snow showers spread into western areas towards midnight and get heavier by Wednesday morning. An inch or two will be possible across the eastern San Juans by morning given favorable orographics...with additional snow expected to fall through the longer ranges as showers spread eastward. -KT .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 403 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2019 On Wed, a disturbance over AZ moves northeastward across CO, bringing increased chances for precip across most of southern CO, although the I-25 corridor, mtns, and high valleys should see the highest chances for precip. Temps will be several degrees cooler on Wed, with highs mostly in the 50s to lower 60s over the plains, and in the mid 40s to around 50 in the high valleys, thus any precip in these areas will be rain, while the high elevations will be cold enough for snow. Wed night that disturbance moves out of the area, while an upper low is forecast to move over the southern tip of NV or southwest UT depending on which model you look at. Ahead of this low, moisture streams into western CO with snow over the mtns and and high valleys. Low level upslope flow over eastern CO, is expected to bring some light snow along the I-25 corridor, while the southeast plains should see little chance for precip Wed night. The ECMWF continues to be slower than the GFS moving the low toward CO. However, on Thu the mtns and high valleys should continue to have high chances for snow, and by late afternoon/early evening, the models agree in moving a band of precip over the far southeast plains as well. Temps on Thu will be even cooler, with highs only in the 30s to around 40 over southeast CO, with upper 30s to lower 40s in the high valleys. Thu night, the models bring the upper low over CO and then move it east over KS on Fri. There will be chances for snow across most of southern CO Thu night, although accumulations look like, and then precip chances will decrease on Fri. As far as winter weather highlights go...the Winter Storm Warning for the southwest mtns looks good, and will go ahead and issue a Winter Wx Advisory for the central mtns from early Wed morning through Thu night. Will probably end up needing an advisory for the Sangre de Cristo mtns for Thu and into Thu night, but will hold off issuing anything at this point. Dry weather is then expected Fri night through Sun, and then the next weather system may move bring precip to the area on Mon. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1111 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2019 Today - Tonight...VFR. Just have some passing high clouds across the region, ahead of the next weather maker. Winds are and will remain generally light out of the south. High confidence. Wednesday...Mostly VFR. A little more uncertainty at KALS if rain/snow showers make it to the terminal by the end of this period which may bring CIGS down to MVFR levels. At this time confidence is on the lower side of MVFR impacts so we refrain from mentioning them at this time. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail as CIGS begin to thicken and lower with time tomorrow ahead of the next weather system. High confidence outside of KALS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Thursday for COZ066-068. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Friday for COZ058-060-061. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...HEAVENER