FXUS65 KPUB 130520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1020 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018

Upper wave swinging through nrn NM this afternoon, with last gasp of
lingering flurries fading away as of 21z across the plains. Skies
will clear overnight under nly flow aloft, setting the stage for the
coldest night of the season so far, as colder air spreads south
across the region. Undercut blended guidance at many locations for
min temps, especially freshly snow covered high valleys (San Luis
and Wet Mountain valleys), where mins could drop to near or slightly
below zero by early Tue morning. On Tue, nly mid/upper flow
continues, though with 700 mb temps rising through the day, max
temps will begin to recover somewhat across the area. Given lack of
much wly downslope component to the flow and snow cover, max temp
rise will be relatively restrained, though most lower elevations
should get well above freezing by mid-afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018

Mainly a dry forecast through this period. The only possible
exception will be during the weekend when a relatively weak trough
moves across the region, bring potentially cooler weather to the
area with a chance of some showers. Given the forecasted evolving
jet structure with this system, it does not appear to be a
significant weather system, as the jet energy is forecasted to
lift off to the east-northeast of the region as the trough moves


Dry and mostly sunny through the period with temperatures generally
in the 50s plains and 40s valleys. Winds are fcst to be generally
light, even over the higher terrain.


This day is forecasted to be the coolest day of the extended
period as a front will cross the region late Friday, ushering in
cooler air to the region for Saturday. this will be the best day
to see some showers (slight chance), with most of the activity
occurring over the c mtns, east facing slopes of the S Front Range
mtns and the plains.


Dry with temperatures warming into the 50s again plains/40s valleys.

Looking a bit farther out...EC and GFS long range guidance shows a
fairly stout and moist subtropical jet punching into S California
mid week next week, and this has the potential to bring some hefty
snows to the SW mtns during this time period. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1013 PM MST Mon Nov 12 2018

Dry, northerly flow across flight area next 24 hours. Aside from
some patchy late night/early morning ground vicinity of water
bodies, VFR expected. This includes the KCOS, KPUB and KALS





NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion