000 FXUS65 KPUB 182102 CCA AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 302 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018 Drier air in the mid levels was spreading across the state this afternoon under nwly flow aloft, while n-nwly surface winds have begun to lower surface dewpoints as well. Starting to see some very isolated convection develop over wrn CO and nwrn NM as of 2030z, so will leave some very low pops in place for the higher peaks of the Sangres and San Juans into early evening, though coverage/intensity of any tsra will be sparse/weak. Still some modest instability along the KS border late this afternoon, though better instability and low level moisture convergence lie farther to the north and east of the region over KS. Past few runs of the HRRR and other mesoscale models haven`t indicated any convection in CO this evening, so will taper back pops over the plains to just a sliver of isolated near the border prior to 00z. Clouds then clear overnight with seasonably mild temps. Center of upper level high pressure drifts eastward along the CO/NM border on Thu, with hot temps across the region as mid level temps/heights peak. Should see readings well above 100f along the lower Ark Valley, with 80s/90s widespread elsewhere. Air mass continues to slowly dry under n-nwly surface/mid-level flow, and suspect at best only very isolated/weak/mainly dry convection over the higher peaks in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018 After a couple of days of hot and relatively dry weather, rain chances will be on the increase once again starting this weekend and especially into early next week. Monsoon moisture will once again be on the increase as early as Friday along the contdvd and across the entire region for the weekend into early next week. For Friday, it will be hot once again with max temps on the plains aoa 100F along the lower ark rvr valley and 90s over the remainder of the plains. Upper 80s will occur in the valleys with 70 mtns. Showers should be on the upswing across the contdvd as moisture increases. For the weekend, moisture increases all regions, although I really do not see any noticeable forcing on the plains, and showers and storms over the lower elevations may be isolated at best. Over the mtns, scattered to likely pops are forecasted. Some of this rain may be locally heavy, with the attended threats of flash flooding and rockslides. From late Sunday night into early next week, showers and storms should become widespread all regions a a front will come down the plains as early as Sunday night, and this will be the needed forcing to get storms going over the plains. flash flooding will become more a concern this period, especially urban areas and east slopes of the mtns/burn scar regions. A drier trend will likely start by mid week. /Hodanish && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018 VFR conditions will continue at all taf sites tonight and Thursday, as drier spreads south across Colorado. Any convection this evening and Thursday afternoon will be very isolated and high base, with tsra remaining over the higher terrain. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...PETERSEN