041 FXUS65 KPUB 042338 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 538 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather concerns for Saturday across portions of southern Colorado. - Near record heat for much the lower elevations. - Dry conditions with well above seasonal temperatures expected through the long term period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Currently...satellite imagery is mostly clear across southern Colorado this afternoon, with just a few cumulus over the southern Sangre de Cristo range. Temperatures are quite pleasant, with mostly 70s across the region. A few degrees of warming should have us topping out in the upper 70s to near 80s this afternoon. Tonight and Saturday...an upper trough is forecast to pass well to the north late tonight into Saturday, with our current upper ridge forced south across the Desert Southwest. No precipitation is forecast with this trough passage. The main concerns for Saturday will be critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area from late Saturday morning into the evening hours. Gusty winds associated with the trough base will spread across the Pikes Peak Region, south across Fremont and Pueblo Counties. Humidity values are forecast to fall in the 10 to 15 percent range, and will combine with northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph will produce the critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, winds look to be weaker, with near critical conditions possible. Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning due to the critical fire weather conditions. If you have plans for outdoor burning on Saturday, consider postponing them until another day. The other main concern will be the heat. Near record highs are forecast for Alamosa, Colorado Springs and Pueblo for Saturday afternoon. Highs will top out in the 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations, with upper 70s over the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Saturday Night - Thursday: Quiet weather will prevail across south central and southeastern Colorado. An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will be in place throughout the long term period. Ensemble model guidance are in strong agreement about this, leading to very high (80-90%) confidence in this pattern evolution. Given increased subsidence and minimal moisture over the region, dry conditions are anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. Though dry conditions are expected, an isolated shower or two may blossom along the mountains later in the long term period given weak ripples within the flow, though confidence is very low (10-15%) in any development at this time. Otherwise, relatively light winds and pockets of afternoon clouds are anticipated for the area. As for temperatures, the October heat continues. With the ridge in place, much of the region will warm to above seasonal values for early to mid October, though Sunday will be closer to seasonal values given a dry cold front passage Saturday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 535 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024 VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours. However, gusty winds are expected after 16z through the afternoon hours at KCOS and KPUB due to a cold front. Gusts could approach 25kts at both terminals. No precipitation is expected. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ221- 222-226>229. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...CLOUSE