000 FXUS65 KPUB 230111 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 711 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 703 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Updated to expire the Red Flag Warning that was in effect for portions of the area as of 7 PM this evening. Winds have started to subside and humidity values recover due to nightfall. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023 1. Critical Fire Weather Conditions this afternoon. Currently... Predominantly clear skies over the region at 2 pm this afternoon. Temperatures were quite warm with temps in the 80s across the plains. These very warm temps juxtapositioned with rather cool temps aloft are leading to dry adiabatic lapse rates reaching well into the mid atmosphere. These lapse rates combined with a 100+ knt jet are leading to some pretty gusty winds in places, as KCOS gusted to 41 knts around 230 pm this afternoon. Rest of Today through tomorrow afternoon... Dry weather is near certain across the region through the period. Main concern will be the continued threat of some stronger winds across the region as the strong westerlies will be impinging across the mountains and this will lead to some strong gusty winds at ridgetops through mid day tomorrow. Fire weather concerns will continue into early evening with winds decreasing at lower elevations by early to mid evening. At mtn top levels, wind will likely keep or, or increase somewhat as the core of the jet pushes overhead tonight. A weak cool front will push across the area tonight, and this will knock a few degrees off the max temps tomorrow as compared to today. wind overall, especially at lower elevations, will be less than today. With lesser winds tomorrow and RH values a bit higher, fire weather concerns will be less, but there will still be be some spotty areas of meteorological critical fire weather conditions, especially in Chaffee, Fremont and western Pueblo counties, and possibly the northern San Luis Valley area. /Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023 Saturday night-Sunday night...Latest models indicate a secondary weak wave translating through the westerly flow aloft across the southern tier of Colorado Saturday night, which could help to produce a few showers across the southern mountains through the night, otherwise dry conditions with seasonal temperatures can be expected across south central and southeast Colorado through the day Sunday. Could see lows getting to around freezing across the San Luis valley, but a widespread hard freeze does not appear likely. Monday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build across the Rockies through the middle of next week, leading to generally dry and warm weather and generally light winds across the region. Latest NBM brings in some slight pops across the southern mountains in the afternoons with some increase in available moisture within the developing weak southwest flow aloft. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue to prevail through the period. As for temperatures, warming aloft under the ridge will help boost highs some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal levels in the 80s to lower 90s across the plains, and mainly 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Thursday-Friday...Operational models start to diverge through the end of next week, as they try to bring west coast energy through the upper ridging in place across the Rockies, and an established omega blocking pattern across the CONUS. With that said, latest NBM grids seem to follow the latest ensemble mean data, which keeps dry and unseasonably warm conditions, with a generally light wind regime in place into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023 VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Some gusty south to southwest winds will be likely at all of the taf sites through late this afternoon, with winds decreasing thereafter. Diurnal flow is anticipated tonight. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...HODANISH