200
FXUS65 KPUB 131107
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
407 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the San
  Luis Valley today, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued
  from 11 AM through 6 PM.

- Snow moves in over the high country through the afternoon and
  evening hours, with snowfall rates increasing drastically
  after sunset. Winter Weather highlights go into effect at 8 PM
  this evening.

- Heavy wind driven snow continues for the mountains Friday and
  Saturday with heaviest falling across the eastern San Juans
  through Friday.

- Damaging winds possible southern I-25 corridor late tonight
  into Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

Wind chills are in the teens to low twenties below zero across our
plains. As of 3 AM, La Junta`s wind chill is at -20F. Temperatures
are in the single digits below zero across our plains, with some of
our mountain valleys and higher terrain locations still near and
just above zero. Alamosa is actually one of our warmest spots on the
map early the morning, which is not typical for them this time of
year. They are sitting at +10F as of 2 AM! Skies are clear for most
areas, with some lingering scattered lower decks still persisting
over El Paso and northern Pueblo counties thanks to continued weak
upslope. Dewpoints are in the single digits and low teens below
zero. The San Luis Valley is experiencing poor overnight
humidity recoveries, with most locations still seeing relative
humidity values around the 40% range early this morning. This
will set the stage for critical fire weather conditions across
the Valley today.

Today..

Brutally cold temperatures stick around through the early morning,
but we begin to warm quickly under sunny skies. Cold Weather
Advisories are valid through 8 AM across portions of our plains. Our
flow aloft transitions from northwesterly this morning to
southwesterly by this afternoon, as our next system approaches from
the west. This will mean increasing temperatures for most areas,
especially for locations south of highway 50, where southwesterly
downsloping winds will kick in earlier in the day. Mostly clear
skies are expected on our plains, with highs ranging from 40s across
our southern plains, to 30s further north. Mountain valleys will
also warm into the 40s, but will be windy today, especially across
the San Luis Valley. Minimum relative humidity values also look to
drop into the low teens across the valley through much of the
afternoon. The combination of low humidities, gusty winds, and dry
fuels will lead to critical fire weather concerns across the San
Luis Valley this afternoon. For this reason, a Red Flag Warning was
issued valid through 6 PM.

The good news is that humidity values increase rapidly through the
evening, as our next system begins to usher in beneficial moisture
to the region. Snow showers look to kick off over the San Juans, La
Garitas, and western Sawatch Mountains through the late afternoon
and early evening hours.

Tonight..

As the upper-level trough makes it`s way into the Great Basin late
tonight into Friday morning, snowfall rates increase drastically
over the high country. The heaviest snowfall looks to fall in the
early morning hours of Friday over the San Juans, with snow chances
spreading eastward across the high country through the night. Winds
also increase tonight, with gusts in excess of 60 mph possible over
the higher terrain, and gusts in excess of 50 mph over lower
elevations. Cross-sections show the potential for inverse shear
across our southern mountains after midnight tonight, though
strongest jet support remains off to our south through this
timeframe. For this reason, went with a high wind watch for now, and
just for Huerfano and Las Animas Counties. This may need to be
expanded in time or space at a later time as models come into better
agreement with the setup for potential mountain wave early tomorrow
morning. Overnight lows will remain cooler than normal for areas
along and north of highway 50, and will be a bit warmer, with
temperatures generally in the upper 20s and low 30s further south
where winds remain elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

Southwest flow increases on Friday with heavy snow continuing
across the Continental Divide, spilling over into the western
slopes and higher peaks of the Sangre De Cristo range through
the day. Have hoisted Winter Weather Advisories and warnings for
most of the mountains, though most of the moisture will get
wrung out before impacting the Wets and Pikes Peak and Rampart
Range. Southwest to westerly orographic flow through this event
will be most favorable for the eastern San Juan mountains where
1 to 2 feet with locally higher amounts will be possible.
Higher crests of the La Garitas, the Sawatch range and the
higher Sangre De Cristo mountains will see a foot or more with
considerable wind driven snow expected. Some moderate snow
accumulations will be possible over the lower sangres Friday
into Friday night but this should stay mainly confined to the
west facing slopes and higher passes. Have opted for Winter
Weather Advisories for these lower areas...though should see a
tight gradient in snowfall amounts down the eastern slopes given
strong downslope flow. Remainder of the valleys could see up to an
inch as showers spill off the adjacent higher terrain.

Otherwise it will remain dry and windy for the plains on
Friday which will allow temperatures to rebound into the 50s to
lower 60s. Cross sections show a brief mountain wave signature
possible across the southern I-25 corridor early Friday morning
from Colorado City to the Raton Pass before deep mixing takes
over with the trough passage. Any showers moving off the
mountains into the adjacent lower elevations may also help with
higher level momentum transport, bringing the potential for wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph into the lower elevations. HREF
shows up to 70 percent probabilities for high winds greater than
58 mph spreading into portions of Huerfano and western Las
Animas counties, which maximize overnight into Friday morning.
Have hoisted high wind watches for this area. Otherwise, could
see gusts up to 50 mph across the southern San Luis Valley and
southern plains south of highway 50 during the day as the
surface low deepens and pushes eastward into KS during the
afternoon.

Cold front drops south through the plains Friday evening with
snow showers possible along and behind it into Saturday.
Doesn`t look like a heavy event but could see some half inch to
1.5 inch amounts as winds shift around from the east on Saturday
providing some shallow upslope in and near the mountains.
Highest of these snow totals will fall across the Palmer Divide.
Central mountains will continue to pick up snow on Saturday as
another impulse in more favorable northwesterly orographic flow
translates across the region. Temperatures will be cooler all
areas.

Precipitation ends Saturday night with dry and warmer conditions
returning for Sunday and Monday as flow aloft transitions back
to westerly ahead of the next system dropping in from the
Pacific Northwest. Monday will be the warmest day ahead of
another cold front which will move through the area Monday
night. Cold and light snow may revisit the region for mid week
as an arctic airmass gets driven south through the norther/central
plains. Long range models differ with how far west the cold air
gets in CO...with EC the coldest and GFS the warmest. National
Model Blends definitely lean warm and dropped temperatures back
several degrees through mid week. If the EC cluster verifies,
may need to cool high temperatures off even more. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected at both TAF sites
through the next 24 hours. Clear skies persist through the beginning
of the period, with mid and upper-level cloud cover moving in
generally after 18Z. Winds look to remain light and mostly easterly
through the day today, with a transition back to westerly overnight
for KPUB tonight.

For KALS..VFR conditions persist through around 03Z this evening,
before chances for vicinity snow showers and the potential for
lowered ceilings begin to encroach on the station. Chances increase
after 18Z, so have left mention on snow on station out of the TAF
until that timeframe. South winds gusting in excess of 20kt remain
in place through the overnight hours, which will lead to blowing
snow tonight and early tomorrow morning. Ceilings and visibilities
will likely come in lower for the next period as chances for snow on
station increase through Friday..

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Saturday for COZ058-059-061-064-072-074.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Saturday for COZ060-066>068-073-075.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
evening for COZ224.
Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for
COZ084>086-089-093>099.
High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
COZ087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion