FXUS65 KPUB 150510

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1110 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019


Subtropical weather disturbance was located along the southern
AZ/NM border early this afternoon. moisture/high cloudiness was
moving north, with cirrus starting to move north across the
border. A few isolated thunderstorms were also noted just south of
the CO/NM border.

Temps were well above normal for this time of the year with
readings in the U80s/L90s across the plains, with temperatures in
the 70s across the valleys.

Rest of today into tonight...

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along
the CO/NM border otherwise it will remain dry. High cloudiness
will continues to slowly move northward this evening as the
disturbance to our south continues to move slowly northward. Min
temps tonight should be several degrees warmer than last night,
with readings in the 50s to around 60F plans and 40s in the


disturbance will continue to move north and we should see a
considerable amount of moisture move into the mountains tomorrow
with upper level moisture moving into the plains. It should be dry
for the most part all areas tomorrow with showers and storms
increasing across the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon,
especially across the southwest mountains. Some locally heavy
showers will be possible across the southwest mountains tomorrow

Max temps over the plains will be similar to todays max temps,
but over the mountains and valleys temps should be several degrees
cooler due to the clouds and precip at higher elevations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019


disturbance will be moving across the region Sunday night into
early Monday. This will keep a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms ongoing through this time period, especially along
the CONTDVD. Burn scars will be have to monitored carefully for
the potential of flash flooding. Some showers may push out onto
the I-25 corridor on Monday, and possibly along the lee trough
which will develop from Kim to Lamar. The brunt of the disturbance
should move out by late afternoon Monday, and this will lead to a
decreasing chance of precip over the area by late in the day.


Another rather strong and tightly wound short wave will move
northeast to the north of the region during the day Tuesday. This
will sharply increase the gradient across the region so winds at
mtn top will be on the increase. Some moisture will move across
the region as the trough axis moves over the area Tuesday
afternoon and this should bring a line of showers and storms
across the CONTDVD region during the afternoon. The system will
likely be a bit too far north for any precip chances over the
remainder of the region.


Weak mid level ridging will build over the area on this day as
another deep trough digs out west and the short wave that affected
the area on Tuesday moves across the Great Lakes. It will mainly
be dry with only isolated storms over the mtns.


deep trough will affect the intermountain NW as a well defined
close low at mid levels will be located over Idaho on this day.
Stout SW flow at mid levels will be over the region and some
moisture will likely be brought across the CONTDVD on this day,
and this will allow for some afternoon showers and storms over
this region Should see some fairly strong southwesterly winds at
mtn tops this day with breezy southerly winds over the remainder
of the region.

Given the stronger gradient over the region, the dry weather and
likely low RH values, fire weather issues will be possible this

Friday in to the weekend...

Main low center will lift off to the northeast. System is expected
to be too far to our north to bring any beneficial precip to the
region, although mtns along the CONTDVD will likely see some
showers, and the dryline along the KS border may become active. It
could be rather breezy, especially on Friday, and this may once
again lead to fire weather concerns on this day.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Increasing mid and high level clouds will spread across the
terminals through late tonight and for tomorrow, however, KCOS and
KPUB should remain above VFR limits. Showers will be possible at
KALS after 19z, with thunderstorms into the area through the
evening. KCOS and KPUB have a very low chance of seeing shower
activity. Winds will generally be diurnally driven, with 10 to 15
kts at each terminal.  Mozley





NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion